Recently, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives published a major report entitled the National Firearms Commerce And Trafficking Assessment (NFCTA). This report looked at the state of the firearm industry in the United States. It contains information on many interesting trends in America’s gun trade and is worth a detailed study.

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The NFCTA is a truly interesting document. It leverages the ATF’s access to manufacturer information to create a comprehensive picture of what kinds of guns are made and sold in the United States. The report also paints a picture of the sheer size of the U.S. gun industry and gun market, as well as a major upswing in those numbers over recent years

Look at the staggering jump in firearms manufactured per 100,000 persons, with the rate in 2020 more than double that in 2000

Handguns

S&W, SIG Sauer, and Ruger (and those entities under their control) manufactured two-thirds of all domestically-made pistols up to 9mm.

The top ten manufacturers made over 33 million guns in a four-year period. In contrast, the U.S. armed forces have something like 4.5 million guns in total.

Handgun manufacturing overtook rifle manufacturing as the largest category of domestically-produced guns. The ATF credits this change to the spread of legal concealed carry opportunities around the United States. That seems like a persuasive interpretation to me and aligns with my anecdotal experience working the gun counter at a shop. More and more people are carrying concealed, and guns designed for concealment are far more comfortable to live with.

This graph shows an uptick in pistol production after 2019, which correlates with the rise of pistols with arm braces. Note the major spike in 2020.

Federal Firearm License Holders

The ATF is obviously the best source for data about Federal Firearm License (FFL) holders. The Type 07 is one of the most popular types of FFL, as it allows a dealer to buy, sell, repair, and manufacture firearms and ammunition. Where Type 07 FFLs are concentrated show clear trends. In 2000, California had 7.7% of all Type 07s. As of 2020, they are in 6th place with 3.8%. Texas has over 12% of all Type 07s, more than double the amount of Florida, which is in second place. FFLs have increasingly concentrated in red states, as opposed to the mix of red and blue states in 2000.

National Firearms Act

There is an abundance of interesting NFA information in the NFCTA. The main trend that emerges is a pronounced spike in NFA manufacturing and sales. 95,674 NFA applications were received in 2010. In 2020 that number was 551,074, a more than five-fold increase. And that level of activity was not a one-off. 525,583 applications were received in 2016. Apart from the spikes, the floor seems to be much higher than in the past as well. 2017 was a low year (thanks in no small part to the abortive Hearing Protection Act’s failure) and it still saw 268,589 applications. NFA items are not going away.

NFA applications are way up, from 95,000 applications in 2010 to over 550,000 in 2019.

Silencers, in particular, are dramatically more common than they used to be. One portion of the report highlights those changes:

• Annual silencer manufacturing volume increased more than 613% between 2010 (26,637) and 2020
(189,987).
• In 2010, the 26,637 silencers manufactured constituted approximately 19% of the total 139,002 NFA
weapons manufactured and distributed into domestic commerce that year.
• In 2020, the 189,987 silencers manufactured constituted nearly 80% of the total 238,917 NFA
weapons manufactured and distributed into domestic commerce that year.

Perhaps one day these numbers will rise to the standard of “common use” for legal purposes.

ATF Regulations

The NFCTA concludes with several insights into ATF’s issuance of rules, determinations, and letters, and their impact on gun production and registration. The report repeatedly calls arm braces “devices purporting to be stabilizing braces.” It also draws some interesting links between the series of (conflicting) ATF letters and opinions and the ebb and flow of Form 1 submissions for SBRs. Apparently, when ATF statements made brace-equipped pistols less appealing, applications spiked. When their statements made brace-equipped pistols appear safer from a regulatory perspective From 1 submissions dropped off.

The NFCTA also points out a spike in the manufacturing of pistols up to .25 caliber. From 1994 to 2019, there were less than 50,000 pistols of that category manufactured per year. That number spiked to almost 200,000 in 2020, largely driven by the popularity of 5.56/.223 pistols. However, the total number of large format pistols manufactured per year is probably much higher when .300 BLK and 7.62×39 models are counted, as well as traditional pistol caliber firearms with stabilizing braces.

Small-caliber pistol manufacturing has spiked, thanks to the popularity of AR-15 pistols.

Conclusion

This article is only a brief look at the NFCTA and the cornucopia of information it contains. There is something interesting on almost every one of its 307 pages. I omitted the entire section on ATF industry operations inspections, but anyone with an FFL would benefit from reading that section of the report. The whole report is well worth a read for anyone who found this overview interesting.