Michael Bane thinks so:
This would certainly be consistent with other “bubbles,” and that may mean an opportunity. Remember we reported from the NRA Show that manufacturers thought we’d reached “peak AR” and that anywhere from 30-60% of their backorders would vanish as the market cooled.
Read his blog post here.
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I think it does seem like it’s cooling down and I hate to say it, but I’m looking to sell my AR. Gently used DPMS Panther Classic 16? Interested? http://gunnoob.blogspot.com/2009/07/ar15-for-sale.html
I know I canceled my LMT order when I was able to find the same uppers at another dealer. LMT was quoting me mid-September for orders placed end of February and beginning of March.
Also, about a month ago, it was almost impossible to find decent barrels for new AR builds but lately those parts are becoming more available.
So, I would say your article is dead on.
If Google Trends is any indication, we’re approaching pre-2008 election levels.
http://google.com/trends?q=%22AR15%22+%7C+%22AR-15%22&ctab=182116352&geo=us&geor=all&date=ytd
That’s the second time I’ve heard this today. I just got off the phone with a friend of mine who works for one of the smaller companies making receivers. They’ve been busy filling back orders for months, but they seem to be pretty well caught up. In the last month or so, he lost his overtime and last week he was only able to get 20 hours in. I’d say the bubble’s about to burst.
Yeah it cooling down when the country is predicted to go over 10% unemployment rate officially at the end of the year. In reality it actually is around 15% right now. I expect it to go between 20%-30% in the coming years.
If you don’t have a job and need the money, sell it to get the best price because we’re heading toward deflation. If money is not the issue I suggest you keep it for personal defense because in the coming months the world might go to hell.
I hope it cools to the point where the market is overflowing with $450 complete M4 uppers (including BCG) like in the time before the election. I built a top quality rifle 4 months prior to the election for around $735 and not I can barely get an upper for that amount. Something has got to change, and fast.
In today’s local ad bulletin, I saw someone selling a Bushmaster M4 he bought in April. The selling price? He was willing to “sacrifice” it for “only” $1700. It’ll be a while before less savy gun owners catch on to how dramatically prices are shifting.
I personally know one guy who paid $700 for a Romanian WASR when they were going for $550 online. He fell for the gun-shop hype that they were rare and going fast. He didn’t make any effort to research curent prices or reviews of the WASR, he just bought it on the spot. Prices will fall, and I predict his (now used) WASR will be worth about half of what he paid for it. Most people will have trouble accepting this change.
Let’s hope now the ammo market straightens up. It is getting crazy not being able to find .45 or .380 when we are trying to do training and certification. Thankfully 9mm supply is getting better.
If we have been in recession and unemployment is so bad, How is it that this many people are still hording ammo?
Here is a link to a similar blog entry: http://rightdownridiculous.wordpress.com/2009/06/22/what-kind-of-recession-is-this/
Good luck at selling that for $1700 when hundreds of thousands of Americans go unemployed each months. I still can’t get over people paying $450 for a muzzle brake in this economy.
I’ve been investing since I was 12, first with mutual funds, then later on with individual stocks and bonds. I do have a deep understanding where the economy is heading.
While I think the government are low balling the numbers, it is still incredible high at any standard. With an average of over 500,000 jobs lost each month, I don’t see how people are stupid enough to spend money that they don’t have and the prospect of losing your job are high.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2009/06/30.html
With that said I still haven’t receive my two upper parts that I order from YHM over six months ago. The market will cool down there no doubt about it.
This doesn’t surprise me one bit. I wrote an article back in March where I explicitly stated that I thought the gun and ammo market hysteria was a bubble. You can see it here:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig10/mattis1.html
Certainly my own experiences at local gun shows as well as the CDNN emails I get suggest that AR-15 supply has started to exceed AR-15 demand.
Now all that’s left is a similar ‘catching up’ in the Ammo and Primer markets.
It’s not the unemployment rate that’s slowing AR-15 sales, it’s the corporate bullshit gun makers and gun dealers tried to feed us about President Obama supposedly trying to ban the AR-15. The market was artificially inflated. Artificial inflations don’t last long. I wouldn’t pay $200 for a puny little .223.