So What Happens if the Hearing Protection Act Passes? – My Opinion
While TFB endeavors to avoid the politics itself, we do deal with the fallout of various political decisions. California’s new “gun control” laws being a perfect example of it, prompting innovation for “features” that previously that did not exist. Another is the Hearing Protection Act, which is having ramifications within the market today, intentional or not.
Today, while the market waits to see if the bill is going to pass, suppressor companies are seeing demand drop significantly. In fact, suppressor giant SilencerCo has announced a series of layoffs due to cratering demand as buyers are looking to potentially avoid the recently enacted 41F rules. As an FFL myself, I’ve seen my suppressor transfer business crater in the last month alone.
If the HPA does not pass, it will largely be a return to business as normal, with likely steady increases in NFA items sales as the ATF works to get down processing times under the new administration and as the demand for suppressors increases.
But… what if the HPA passes?
I see three phases to the post HPA world.
First Phase 1-6 Months
Assuming near immediate implementation of the bill, current suppressor companies are in a prime place to cash in. Demand for suppressors will skyrocket and due to limited production capacities (due to NFA restrictions), availability of cans will be limited relative to demand. Prices will likely increase over what is seen today as the total value quotient changes without the NFA tax and from high demand. Current OEMs will run lights-out and work to bring on capacity.
Second Phase 6 Months – 3 Years
This is where things start to get interesting. Suppressors, at least basic ones, are very simple and easy to manufacture items. Any shop with a lathe can produce components and produce they will. With demand skyrocketing, your “typical” firearms companies will get in the suppressor game, adding in their capacity to a high-demand market. In the second six months, as new companies and offerings come online, pricing will start to fall and in the second year, it will be a near race to the bottom. Similar to “The Panic” buying from a few years ago, production will catch-up to demand and an excess of inventory will start driving prices down… way down, especially with suppressors being much easier to make than a completed firearm.
Third Phase – 3 Years +
After the prices hit bottom, the market will start choosing its winners and losers. Those without compelling offerings or solid pricing will shrink and potentially go out of business, including well-known brands if they opt to compete by reducing pricing without right-sizing other operations. There will be sufficient capacity and most buyers will see suppressors on the self ready-to-buy at most gun shops. Pricing will stabilize, significantly below pricing today (I would estimate great cans to be 50-60% of today’s pricing with reduced overhead, regulation, and increased volumes). At this point, suppressors are commonplace.
Long Term
If anything, the prospect of the long-term effect of deregulating suppressors is exciting. One of the things that struck me during my world travels was the shooting culture in Scandanavia. For them, it was considered rude to NOT have a suppressor on a firearm. I would expect this to be the same in the US with cans being affordable and readily available. Say goodbye to nasty multi-port brakes (unless serving as the mount and sacrificial blast baffle for a solid can)!
One of TFB's resident Jarheads, Nathan now works within the firearms industry. A consecutive Marine rifle and pistol expert, he enjoys local 3-gun, NFA, gunsmithing, MSR's, & high-speed gear. Nathan has traveled to over 30 countries working with US DoD & foreign MoDs.The above post is my opinion and does not reflect the views of any company or organization.
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Dead wrong assumption of where market conditions will go. Nobody outside of legitimate tool and die and manufacturing professionals understand the exhaustive effort to produce a quality product. The quality manufacturers out there are using absolutely state of the art machines and tooling, millions of dollars of capitol investment as well as top CAD CAM systems and post processing machines are used to turn hard materials into silencers. 50-60% reduction in price is completely absurd in high quality silencers. 10-15% will for sure happen, maybe slightly more. But to say that costs will cut in half is complete ignorance.
Will there be a push of garbage silencers into the market that are in no way as durable, performing, or spec competitive as their quality counterparts? Absolutely. But these garbage products like in any other industry will only be consumed so much by the general public.
its so common to see media people with zero understanding of industry technology to be offering their "professional opinions" on matters they know nothing about. Instead of acting like a business analyst, stock to covering product launches press releases etc. You are embarrassing yourself.
Nathan, Dare I wade into this morass? Currently, Oversight Comm. is foaming at the mouth over ATF's middle finger reply, as in stone wall, slow walking, and not attending a hearing, emanating from Acting ATF Dir. and our dear TURK-MAN.
Seems this goes all the way, quickly, as in FAST, and Holder left the Committee Furious.
New hearings are scheduled, and round two is expected. The arrogance meted out to Cong. has many more than irritated, to the point, that the White House Petition, but more importantly, the Bill held up in committee since 2015, has been recalled to active status and not by co-incidence. This goes to eliminating the ATF and folding them into the FBI and DEA.
If this occurs, NICS would be online available and rumor has it that the USPS might get the nod for issuing "stamps" as there is opinion in credible sources, that the USPS has expertise in issuing "stamps" inan orderly, timely manner. RUMOR. ATF hasn't even gotten a whiff of this I hear. There does however exist concerted intentions to reduce ATF funding, reduce staff and the budge axe is now on the grinding stone. Priorities is the current seemingly lack of news.
It is a fact, that no one knows how this will evolve let alone who stays, who goes and by what alphabet nomenclature designation. ATF under the previous admin. frankly has done nothing to enhance their relationship with the Congressional branch, quite the opposite as an insulated Executive branch.
That is as current as the winds blow imo. Gotta' get that in my opinion in script!
I will offer my take on your phases 1,2, and 3. I've previously offered my opinion the odds of HPA passage are 3 to 1, I'll stick by that "swag." This has support crossing the isle in Congress. as for the "industry" boosting prices for a early gravy train imo, is a reach, as companies abound and in moments can be online and entering the sales market.
If the reigns come off totally, as in no stamps, just perhaps a NICS check and a form at point of sale, or none at all, know one as yet knows, we'll see a flood of Chinese imports and might under more restricted formalities.
Modern "sporting rifles " aka Armalite Rifles are likely threaded, I have a bushmaster pre-ban duty rifle crowned muzzle, no threading, but the rest by far of the firearms out there are not threaded, most pistols are not and my go to hunting bolt guns certainly are not.
The point? I would be years before you see me at a range with my ported competition brakes removed, and 9 out of 10 on the firing lines likely in the same boat.
Hearing protection at 25 to 100 bucks beats having your firearm threaded.
This gives folks recently separated from employ in the industry to manufacture after market pistol barrels and long guns with threading, so opportunity exists.
The firearm public for the most part imo, is saturated. New mouse traps are getting more difficult, as exceptions such as 6.5 Creedmore point out.
The agile manufacturer's, no doubt smarter than I, most certainly imo, will offer a "free suppressor, with the purchase of our long gun." That boosts your market penetration, excludes entry into the suppressor market by sheer dominance and the leftovers, those just interested in getting a suppressor will seek the best for the buck. Competition will drive the weak from the marketplace and limit the upside profitability.
So, for a number of reasons, if I were the person in a decision making position to commit CAPEX, I'd choose to outsource it to such and lazer etch, or, deal with existing cnc capacity in house.
Personally, I need suppression, hunters especially those dealing with nocturnal feral issues, find optics and suppression a necessity to maximize efficiency, so I am not anti-industry, quite the contrary.
I almost jumped a CZ on "gun-toker" the other day, beautiful with THREE barrels in the kit, at least two were threaded, for what, lol, I have no idea. I hate drooling at my age! Sad. Like I've said, I need no more anything, but I'll take any CZ, threaded or not.
So who will be the manufacturer who begins making barrels for the weapons what would be a market for suppressors? That might be where the sweet spot is. Margins, sales. A two-fer works for me...after market bbl. for (insert name, model of weapon) and a suppressor. I sorta' like the idea. I need to cut back on that Ensure consumption.