The Firearm Blog

Time to buy gun shares? CNBC says NO, and so do I.

While S&W (SWHC) sell a wide range of M&P branded AR-15s, Ruger (RGR) sells the Mini-14 / Mini-30 (and since recently high capacity Mini-14 magazines) and Olin Corp. (OLN, makers of Winchester branded ammo) is selling overprice ammo, along with everyone else, I suggest you stay away from all three.

So, why not Ruger and S&W? In 10 words … a gun sold today is a gun not sold tomorrow. There may be a mad rush to purchase evil semi-automatic rifles, handguns and “sniper” rifles today but in the long run, even if there is no AWB 2.0, sales will drop. If/when there is an AWB then sales will drop unless the manufactures manage to ensure the AR and Mini-xx family of rifles is are banned by name, and even then they will be competing with the pre-ban market.

So why not Olin? Apart from my prediction yesterday that ammo prices will drop in 2010 or sooner, Olin does many other chemical related manufacturing, ammo is only part of the business, so betting that the stock price will go up based on ammo prices would be a mistake.

Share price (60 day moving average in red) over the past year. Charts from Yahoo Finance:

Ruger

Olin Corp.


S&W