Ruger, Cabela’s and Winchester All Doing Very Well

Ruger, Cabela’s and the Winchester Ammunition division of Olin Corp are all doing very well reports EarningsWhispers via. Seeking Alpha

The consensus revenue estimate for Ruger is $131.65 million, which represents sales growth of approximately 17% year-over-year; but that is likely much too conservative after what we’ve seen over the past week or so. For one, the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System [NICS] shows demand for firearms increased by 107% over the same period a year ago and last quarter Ruger said it gained market share and it sales outpaced the growth indicated by the background checks.

Another data point came from Olin (OLN). The company disappointed with its results last week, but that’s because Winchester sales make up only about a quarter of the total company. Winchester’s total sales increased by 27.5% and its commercial sales increased by 40%. The total sales growth was modestly better than last quarter when it reported total sales growth of 27.1%.

In addition, Cabela’s (CAB) reported same-store-sales growth of 24% last week and, when we back out other data, we get firearm and ammunition sales that seems to have increased by 40% as well. Last quarter Cabela’s same-store-sales growth was just 12%, so this showed a very solid acceleration in same-store-sales led by firearm sales during the quarter. This has a solid read-through for Big 5 Sporting Goods (BGFV), which reports after the close on Tuesday, April 30, 2013 and is expected to beat estimates. The consensus earnings estimate for Big 5 is $0.20 per share and the our number is $0.24 per share. However, the accelerating growth by both companies also suggests that Ruger’s sales outpaced the 52% growth it reported last quarter.

Based on Winchester’s commercial sales and Cabela’s same-store-sales as well as Ruger’s market share, 40% sales growth for Ruger is probably conservative, which would result in total revenue of approximately $155.0 million – well above the consensus estimate. This, in turn, would result in earnings of approximately $1.15 per share. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share.

Steve Johnson

Founder and Dictator-In-Chief of TFB. A passionate gun owner, a shooting enthusiast and totally tacti-uncool. Favorite first date location: any gun range. Steve can be contacted here.


  • Bill

    In other news: water is wet.

    • Yea but not everyone keeps up with how these companies are doing. It also has a direct affect on how soon we can see additional ammo on store shelves. The more money they have the more likely to invest in new equipment and produce more ammo, guns etc.

      • David Hinerman

        I hope you’re right, but most of us think the current run on guns and ammo is temporary. Demand will likely drop eventually either because the panic over gun bans and ammo restrictions will fade, or the bans will be enacted and we won’t be able to buy guns any more. (Not likely, but it either way demand will drop.) Whether demand will stay above pre-2012 levels, which would justify investing in additional production capacity, remains to be seen. I think manufacturers will still be slow to invest until there’s more data.

      • steve

        It’s great to see, and important too. Analysts have been saying the sales volume of companies like Ruger is a temporary thing for years now. Glad to see them continue to be proven wrong…the new, increased buy rate of firearms in the US is not some single-quarter fluctuation based on a single election event.

        Eventually, it will probably slow down. But the floor isn’t going to drop out of the gun market suddenly once everybody gets their backorders from november…