My SHOT Show predictions: I suck


A few days before SHOT I made seven predictions on what would and would not be launched at SHOT. SayUncle agreed to take on the prestigious role of unbiased judge and has given me my score:

1. Ruger will not launch an AR-15. Correct

2. A new cartridge will be unveiled. FAIL (a new cartridge was launched just before SHOT but it is not yet a production cartridge)

3. A non-autoloader rifle will chamber the .30 Remington AR (.30 RAR) cartridge. FAIL

4. Magpul will demo some whizz-bang concept gun. FAIL

5. Ruger LCP available in 9mm. FAIL

7. A new bullpup bolt action rifle will be released. FAIL

6. Ruger Mini-14 will get a minor upgrade but not what people where hoping for. FAIL

8. A 4th Generation Glock, if launched, will not convince any 1911 fanboy that plastic is cool. Correct

So that is a 2/8. Cerberus will not be employing me as a gun industry analyst anytime soon 😉

I can’t believe Remington did not convince anyone, including their bolt-action rifle division, to chamber a rifle in .30 RAR – new cartridges sell rifles. Ruger dropped the ball by not launching a 9mm LCP. I will be saving my bullpup bolt rifle prediction for next year.



Steve Johnson

Founder and Dictator-In-Chief of TFB. A passionate gun owner, a shooting enthusiast and totally tacti-uncool. Favorite first date location: any gun range. Steve can be contacted here.


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  • “6. Ruger Mini-14 will get a minor upgrade but not what people where hoping for. FAIL”

    I don’t know, I’d wager this one was correct. They did some extra polishing and rounding on certain parts. Offered in a new tactical configuration utilizing 3rd party stock. And offered a version with a Flash Suppressor.

    So that’s 3 out of 8 correct.

    And “2. A new cartridge will be unveiled. FAIL (one was launched just before SHOT but it is not yet a production cartridge)”

    There was the one cartridge announced that was a necked down version of the .327 Magnum. So that might count. And bring you up to half-right.

    • N.U.G.U.N., number 6 could go either way, but people were hoping for a tactical pistol gripped folding stock Mini-14 and they did get it!

  • Oh, I just want to add that I am not sure I’d see the benefit of a 9mm LCP. I mean frankly, it’s not the easiest gun to control and shoot accurately as it stands.

    What I think they needed in way of pistols are the following:

    – Ruger SR-9 Sub-compact
    – Ruger P-390 (P-345 chambered in 9mm)

  • I will toss in my vote for #6 being correct. Yes, it’s obviously a step up from the TAPCO-stocked previous tactical Mini-14s, but the new ones aren’t what I would consider a “major” release.

  • A bolt action bullpup would take some serious engineering on the charging handle.